With economic uncertainty looming and the odds of a recession estimated between 30% and 40%, the smart move isn’t to panic — it’s to prepare. One of the most effective ways small businesses have weathered economic storms in the past is by having a Federal Growth Strategy in place, with federal contracting serving as an alternative and reliable source of revenue.
A 2008 Lesson in Building a Federal Growth Strategy
During the 2008 recession, many of our clients at Fedvital had already secured federal contracting vehicles and SBA certifications through our firm. That move proved critical. The stability of government contracts gave them enough cushion to survive — and in many cases thrive — through the worst of the downturn.
Don’t Ignore the Federal Market (Even If It Feels Unfashionable)
Right now, with shifts in focus such as the end of DEI mandates and the rise of DOGE (Delivery of Government Equity), we’ve seen a growing number of businesses turn away from federal opportunities. That, in our opinion, is a major mistake.
Yes, each new administration brings change. You may not agree with all of it — we don’t either — but business is business. Federal spending continues regardless of politics. The key to long-term resilience is to adapt, not resist. As we often tell our clients: be the fish that swims with the current — not against it.
What About 8(a) Under Trump?
It’s worth remembering that during the first Trump administration, 8(a) certified firms (small businesses owned by socially and economically disadvantaged individuals) were actually granted an extra year in the program due to COVID-related disruptions. That extended eligibility from 9 to 10 years — a clear example that the program’s value transcends politics.
So, labeling any administration as “anti-8(a)” doesn’t paint the full picture. What matters more is how you position your business in today’s environment.
Also read our article: Learn What the Future Holds for the 8(a) Program
The New Order: GSA First, SBA Certification Second
At Fedvital, we’re seeing a major shift in how federal buyers approach small business contracts. In the past, contracting officers looked first at your SBA certifications — 8(a), WOSB, HUBZone, or SDVOSB. Now, that’s changed.
The first question in 2024 and beyond will be:
“Do you have a GSA Schedule Contract?”
If you do, your SBA certification becomes a bonus — not the main qualifier. Think of your GSA Schedule as your federal sales license — it gets you in the door. Your SBA certification? That’s what makes you stand out once you’re inside.
What the Numbers Are Telling Us
Here’s how we see the trend unfolding over the next few years:
| Era | # of GSA Schedule Holders (Small Biz) | Total Small Biz Sales | Average per Firm |
| 2023 & Before | 12,000 | $16 Billion | ~$1.3 Million |
| Projected 2024+ | 24,000 | $64 Billion | ~$2.6 Million |
We’re forecasting a doubling of small business participation in the GSA Schedule program, with a fourfold increase in total small business sales. Why? Because federal buyers want easy procurement paths — and the GSA Schedule is the fastest and most trusted.
Time to Act: It Takes 6 Months
Getting a GSA Schedule contract takes roughly 6 months. So does most SBA certification processing. They run on separate tracks, so you can pursue both at the same time — and we recommend doing just that.
If you want to be one of the firms that thrives in a tighter economy, getting both your GSA Schedule and SBA certifications in place now is the move. It’s the difference between scrambling for revenue and having a reliable pipeline of federal work.
Think of it like this: “Build the ark before it starts raining.”
Let’s Talk — No Pressure
If you want to explore your options, we’re here to help. Our team at Fedvital has helped hundreds of businesses navigate this process — from strategy to submission — and we’re always happy to offer guidance. You can also contact us to start a conversation today, No sales pitch. No obligation. Just insight.
