In The Hunt for Red October, CIA Analyst Jack Ryan predicts that Captain Marko Ramius will make a sharp turn at the top of the hour during his “Crazy Ivan” maneuver. By understanding the leader’s behavior, Ryan was able to predict the course of the operation—although, in some ways, he might have just been taking an educated guess.
Similarly, we can look to the leadership of the General Services Administration (GSA) to gain insights into the future of federal procurement. The current head of the GSA, Stephen Ehikian, comes from a background at Salesforce, where he served as the Vice President of AI Products. This suggests that AI is likely to play a major role in shaping the future of federal procurement.
Recently, the GSA issued a request to all federal agencies for details on contracts with the top 10 largest federal consulting firms, which collectively generate $65 billion in sales with the government. The GSA’s directive stated that contracts not providing direct technical support should be cancelled. This suggests that Ehikian’s experience at Salesforce may have led him to question the value of high-priced consultants in delivering meaningful outcomes.
Another key figure in the GSA’s leadership team is Thomas Shedd, who, at just 28 years old, brings a strong background in mechanical and software engineering. Before joining the GSA, Shedd worked at Tesla, where he specialized in software for vehicle cameras and battery management systems. His expertise, particularly in AI technology, could be a significant factor in driving innovation within the GSA.
GSA’s Likely Leadership Direction: The Role of AI in Federal Procurement
AI is poised to become a cornerstone of procurement at the GSA, potentially transforming how federal buyers select the best contractors to meet their needs. Historically, the top 10 consulting firms succeeded in securing federal contracts due to their large teams of proposal writers, business development professionals, and extensive experience with major projects. This created significant barriers to entry for smaller firms, which were often unable to compete.
However, the GSA’s recent moves indicate that the new leadership is determined to challenge the status quo. By targeting non-mission-critical contracts for smaller, more specialized contractors with lower cost structures, the GSA is creating opportunities for firms that were previously overlooked. AI will likely play a key role in leveling the playing field, introducing new methodologies for selecting vendors that could lead to faster, more cost-effective, and higher-quality solutions.
While the shift may be challenging for federal buyers in the short term, it has the potential to deliver better outcomes in the long run—especially when compared to the legacy solutions provided by the top 10 firms. If the GSA can effectively leverage AI, it could create a major advantage for smaller businesses that use GSA Schedules and Managed GWACs to carve out their niche in the federal market.
Recommendation for Smaller Businesses
Given these emerging trends, we recommend that smaller businesses pursue GSA Schedules, as they are likely to become an even more valuable platform for smaller firms moving forward. With the GSA’s shift toward AI-driven procurement and a focus on cost-effective, specialized solutions, the future looks bright for agile companies ready to seize new opportunities.
