On July 1, 2026, the three-year grace period ends for HUBZone firms that are “out” based upon 2020 census and new 2023 HUBZone map.
We estimate that this will result in the loss of over 1,300 HUBZone firms. There are currently 5,186 now so the new number of firms will likely sit at ~4,000 HUBZone firms. This will likely be the low water mark for HUBZone firms in the past 20 years.
HUBZone Sales Projections: Higher Revenue Per Firm After the 2026 Cliff
2024 Baseline = 17.6B HUBZone Sales / 5,200 H-firms = $3.4MM per firm
2026 New = 20.0B HUBZone Sales / 4,000 H-firms = $5.0MM per firm
Why the HUBZone + GSA Schedule Combination Creates a Major Opportunity
Lions Share – If your firm wants to best these rather large results the HUBZone + GSA Schedule is the way to go. This is because when Federal buyers go to do market research they don’t go to sam.gov and look and the micro capabilities statements, they go to the GSA Schedule System where they can see a firm’s full catalog. However, only 20% of HUBZone firms have a GSA Schedule Contract even though the average sales amount currently sits at $2.6MM per year. Additionally, a rule of thumb for a HUBZone firm is that their federal sales are 3x their HUBZone sales overall.
Why HUBZone + GSA Schedule Creates a Federal Contracting Advantage
While the general shrinkage of the HUBZone pool benefits the remaining firms it also creates an absolute gold rush for companies that also hold a GSA Multiple Award Schedule (MAS).
Federal contracting officers are notoriously risk-averse and perpetually short on time. They rarely want to navigate the bureaucratic red tape in open-market procurement if they can avoid it. They look for the path of least resistance: The GSA Schedule.
When an agency buys from a firm that is both HUBZone certified and on the GSA Schedule, they achieve a critical procurement trifecta:
- Speed and Compliance: They utilize pre-negotiated, GSA-vetted pricing, bypassing months of acquisition delays.
- Goal Double-Dipping: The agency gets to check off a GSA spend box and a socioeconomic HUBZone box with a single transaction.
- Price Advantage: HUBZone firms on GSA Schedules leverage a structural 10% price evaluation preference, allowing them to systematically outcompete larger or non-certified entities on full-and-open schedule solicitations.
Recent GSA and SBA procurement data underscores this reality. The average active small business on a GSA Schedule generates solid revenue, but when a firm pairs that schedule with an active HUBZone certification, remember their total federal portfolio routinely scales to 3x to 3.5x higher than firms relying on the schedule alone.
Looking for Help?
If you would like more information as to how a HUBZone + GSA Schedule combination can benefit your firm please feel free to call us. We are always happy to help!
